Sunday morning, I was standing at my desk, looking down from
my window at the street of my city. An SUV went by. Then another SUV. Then a
third. A fourth. A fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth. I counted thirteen SUVs in a
row, on their way to church or to the Quikchek convenience store for coffee,
milk or a newspaper. It was a reality quikchek.
In his erudite bestseller “Collapse: How Societies Choose to
Fail or Succeed,” Jared Diamond provides a roadmap of the factors contributing
to the failure of societal or group decisionmaking: a society may fail to
anticipate a problem before it arrives; when it does arrive, a group may fail
to perceive it; it may perceive a problem, but fail to try to solve it; or it
may recognize a problem and try to solve it, but fail.
Where are we in terms of Energy Independence on the Jared
Diamond Scale?
No one can say Americans haven’t recognized that our
dependence on foreign oil leads to bad results, including the Iraq War. The day
al-Qaeda succeeds in controlling or crippling the Saudi oil industry is the day
the collapse of our civilization begins. Even the not-for-prophet George W.
Bush has warned of our addiction to foreign oil, though one may be skeptical
about his intentions.
The 13 SUVs passing by, not to mention the relentlessly
increasing demand for energy and electricity, are a good indication that we are
at Diamond’s Station 3: we perceive, but are not seriously trying to solve our
ruinous dependence on foreign oil.
What about global warming?
American climate scientists were the first to recognize that
human industry, transportation, agriculture and deforestation were forcing
climate changes with potentially big risks to civilization. Al Gore as senator
recognized the problem and led the way in putting global warming on the world’s
political agenda.
But two syndromes interceded. One was what Diamond calls
“creeping normalcy.” Climate change takes place in small, random increments
over a long period of time, so it’s difficult for average citizens to sense a
crisis. It took repeated severe storms and floods before Europeans grasped the
climate crisis and sponsored The Kyoto Treaty to cap greenhouse gas emissions.
And second was the “tragedy of the commons” syndrome.
Individuals, corporations and governments make rational economic decisions based
on self interest, although those decisions cumulatively degrade the natural
systems on which the economy are based.
So we haven’t moved very far into Diamond’s station 3:
recognition but failure to try.
Now, however, recognition of both foreign oil dependence and
global warming are spreading rapidly through the mass media. But recognition
doesn’t automatically convert to successful decisionmaking.
That will take the wisdom to look at how our core values
contribute to the problem or help solve it—and a willingness to abandon those
values that risk our collapse as a civilization. The bigger is better mentality
that puts so many of us behind the wheels of insolent chariots is one that
needs abandonment soon.
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